/Users/andrea/_magisterarbeit/korpus/clean/testkorpus/29/file3a.html NN ----------------------------------------- : Organisation NP for IN Economic NP Co NP operation NN and CC Development NP Help NN FAQ NP MyOECD NP Fran NP ais NNS Building VVG Partnerships NNS for IN Progress NP Search NP This DT sub NN site NN Whole JJ site NN More JJR Search NP options NNS Browse VV OECD NP Home NP About IN OECD NP By IN Topic NN By IN Country NP By IN Department NP Find VVP Statistics NP Publications NP Documents NNS News NP Releases VVZ Resources NPS for IN Journalists NPS Government NP Officials NP NGOs NNS Civil NP Society NP Online JJ Services NP Online JJ Bookshop NP Online JJ Library NN E NN mail NN Alerts VVZ MyOECD NP Opportunities NNS Job NP Vacancies NNS Human NP Resources NPS Calls VVZ for IN Tender NN Statistics NP Portal NP About IN Publications NP Documents NNS Home NP . SENT Statistics NP Portal NP Glossary NN of IN Composite NP Leading NP Indicators NNS Glossary NN of IN Composite NP Leading VVG Indicators NNS A DT B NP C NP D NP E NP F NP G NP H NP I NP J NP K NP L NP M NP N NP O NP P NN Q NP R NP S NP T NN U NP V NN W NP X NP Y NP Z NP A NP . SENT AMPLITUDE NN ADJUSTMENT NN B NP . SENT BUSINESS NN CYCLE NN C NP . SENT CLI NP COMPONENT NN SERIES NN CYCLE NN G NP . SENT GROWTH NN CYCLE NN M NP . SENT MCD NP N NP . SENT NORMALISATION NN O NN . SENT ONE CD MONTH NN PERCENT NN CHANGE NN P NN . SENT PHASE NN R NN . SENT RATIO NN TO TO TREND VV REFERENCE NN SERIES NN S NP . SENT SIX CD MONTH NN RATE NN OF IN CHANGE NN SMOOTHING VVG T NN . SENT TREND NN RESTORED VVD TREND NN TURNING VVG POINT NN TWELVE NN MONTH NN RATE NN OF IN CHANGE NN AT IN ANNUAL JJ RATE NN SMOOTHED VVN W NP . SENT WEIGHTING NN Z NN . SENT ZONE NN AMPLITUDE NN ADJUSTMENT NN The DT CLI NP is VBZ adjusted VVN to TO ensure VV that IN its PP$ cyclical JJ amplitude NN on IN average NN agrees VVZ with IN that DT of IN detrended JJ reference NN series NN . SENT BUSINESS NN CYCLE NN Business NN cycles NNS are VBP recurrent JJ sequences NNS of IN alternating VVG phases NNS of IN expansion NN and CC contraction NN in IN the DT level NN of IN a DT time NN series NN CLI NP CLI NP is VBZ an DT aggregate JJ time NN series NN displaying VVG a DT reasonably RB consistent JJ leading VVG relationship NN with IN the DT reference NN series NN for IN the DT macroeconomic JJ cycle NN in IN a DT country NN . SENT CLI NP is VBZ constructed VVN by IN aggregating VVG together RB component NN series NN selected VVD according VVG to TO the DT criteria NNS specified VVN in IN component NN series NN . SENT However RB , , It PP is VBZ important JJ to TO emphasize VV that DT component NN series NN are VBP not RB selected VVN according VVG to TO a DT strict JJ quantitative JJ criteria NNS based VVN on IN the DT cross NN correlation NN with IN the DT reference NN series NN . SENT Thus RB , , CLI NP can MD be VB used VVN to TO give VV an DT early JJ indication NN of IN turning VVG points NNS in IN the DT reference NN series NN but CC not RB for IN quantitative JJ forecasts NNS . SENT COMPONENT NN SERIES NN Component NN series NN are VBP economic JJ time NN series NN which WDT exhibit VV leading JJ relationship NN with IN a DT reference NN series NN at IN the DT turning VVG points NNS . SENT Their PP$ seasonally RB adjusted VVN or CC raw JJ form NN are VBP combined VVN into IN a DT CLI NP . SENT The DT component NN series NN are VBP selected VVN from IN a DT wide JJ range NN of IN economic JJ sectors NNS . SENT The DT number NN of IN series NN used VVN for IN the DT compilation NN of IN the DT OECD NP CLIs NP varies VVZ for IN each DT Member NP country NN , , i NP . SENT e SYM . SENT between IN five CD and CC eleven NN series NN . SENT Selection NN of IN the DT appropriate JJ series NN for IN each DT country NN are VBP made VVN according VVG to TO the DT following VVG criteria NNS . SENT Economic JJ significance NN . SENT there EX has VHZ to TO be VB an DT a DT priori NN economic JJ reason NN for IN a DT leading JJ relationship NN with IN the DT reference NN series NN . SENT Cyclical JJ behaviour NN . SENT cycles NNS should MD lead VV those DT of IN the DT reference NN series NN , , with IN no DT missing JJ or CC extra JJ cycles NNS . SENT At IN the DT same JJ time NN , , the DT lead NN at IN turning VVG points NNS should MD be VB homogeneous JJ over IN the DT whole JJ period NN . SENT Data NP quality NN . SENT statistical JJ coverage NN of IN the DT series NN should MD be VB broad JJ . SENT series NN should MD be VB compiled VVN on IN a DT monthly JJ rather RB than IN on IN a DT quarterly JJ basis NN . SENT series NN should MD be VB timely JJ and CC easily RB available JJ . SENT there EX should MD be VB no DT break NN in IN time NN series NN . SENT series NN should MD not RB be VB revised VVN frequently RB . SENT CYCLE NN the DT time NN span NN separating VVG two CD turning VVG points NNS of IN the DT same JJ nature NN two CD peaks NNS or CC two CD troughs NNS . SENT GROWTH NN CYCLE NN Growth NN cycles NNS are VBP recurrent JJ fluctuations NNS in IN the DT series NN of IN deviations NNS from IN trend NN . SENT Thus RB , , growth NN cycle NN contractions NNS include VVP slowdowns NNS as RB well RB as IN absolute JJ declines NNS in IN activity NN , , whereas IN business NN cycles NNS contractions NNS includes VVZ only RB absolute JJ declines NNS recessions NNS . SENT The DT OECD NP cyclical JJ indicator NN system NN uses VVZ the DT growth NN cycle NN approach NN . SENT MCD NP MCD NP Months NNS for IN Cyclical JJ Dominance NN is VBZ defined VVN as IN the DT shortest JJS span NN of IN months NNS for IN which WDT the DT I NP C NP ratio NN is VBZ less JJR than IN unity NN . SENT I PP and CC C NP are VBP the DT average JJ month NN to TO month NN changes NNS without IN regard NN to TO sign VV of IN the DT irregular JJ and CC trend NN cycle NN component NN of IN the DT series NN , , respectively RB . SENT There EX is VBZ a DT convention NN that IN the DT maximum JJ value NN of IN MCD NP should MD be VB 6 CD . SENT For IN quarterly JJ series NN , , there EX is VBZ an DT analogous JJ measure NN , , quarters NNS for IN Cyclical JJ Dominance NN QCD NP , , which WDT has VHZ a DT maximum JJ value NN conventionally RB defined VVN as IN 2 CD . SENT NORMALISATION NN This DT transformation NN of IN the DT detrended JJ component NN series NN is VBZ required VVN prior RB to TO aggregation NN into IN CLI NP in IN order NN to TO express VV the DT cyclical JJ movements NNS in IN a DT comparable JJ form NN i NP . SENT e SYM . SENT for IN either RB a DT multiplicative JJ or CC an DT additive JJ model NN when WRB estimating VVG the DT trend NN . SENT the DT cyclical JJ amplitude NN is VBZ homogenised VVN . SENT The DT method NN used VVN to TO calculate VV normalised VVN indices NN is VBZ to TO subtract VV the DT mean NN from IN the DT observed JJ value NN and CC then RB to TO divide VV the DT resulting VVG difference NN by IN the DT mean NN of IN the DT absolute JJ values NNS of IN the DT difference NN from IN the DT mean NN . SENT ONE CD MONTH NN PERCENT NN CHANGE VV The DT 1 CD month NN percent NN change NN is VBZ defined VVN as IN the DT month NN to TO month NN change NN in IN the DT trend NN restored VVN CLI NP . SENT This DT gives VVZ an DT indication NN of IN the DT most RBS recent JJ changes NNS in IN the DT indicator NN . SENT A DT change NN in IN the DT direction NN of IN the DT indicator NN , , or CC a DT continued JJ inflection NN in IN the DT rate NN indicates VVZ a DT turning VVG point NN . SENT In IN practice NN , , a DT 3 CD month NN rule NN can MD be VB applied VVN for IN the DT identification NN of IN a DT turning VVG point NN . SENT That DT is VBZ , , three CD consecutive JJ months NNS of IN negative JJ positive JJ change NN will MD give VV a DT signal NN for IN a DT peak NN trough NN . SENT PHASE NN time NN span NN between IN a DT peak NN and CC a DT trough NN . SENT RATIO NN TO TO TREND VV The DT trend NN is VBZ eliminated VVN from IN the DT series NN by IN dividing VVG the DT original JJ series NN by IN the DT trend NN to TO give VV a DT ratio NN to TO trend VV since IN the DT underlying JJ structure NN of IN most JJS series NN used VVN is VBZ multiplicative JJ . SENT For IN series NNS whose WP$ underlying JJ structure NN is VBZ additive JJ , , a DT difference NN from IN trend NN series NN is VBZ calculated VVN . SENT REFERENCE NN SERIES NN Cyclical JJ indicator NN systems NNS are VBP constructed VVN around IN a DT reference NN chronology NN . SENT The DT reference NN series NN is VBZ the DT economic JJ variable NN whose WP$ cyclical JJ movements NNS it PP is VBZ intended VVN to TO predict VV . SENT In IN the DT OECD NP system NN , , the DT index NN of IN total JJ industrial JJ production NN is VBZ used VVN as IN the DT reference NN series NN . SENT Ideally RB , , Gross NP Domestic NP Product NP GDP NP would MD be VB used VVN as IN the DT reference NN series NN , , but CC for IN many JJ countries NNS , , there EX is VBZ often RB a DT substantial JJ time NN lag NN in IN the DT publication NN of IN GDP NP estimates NNS and CC they PP are VBP usually RB available JJ only RB on IN an DT annual JJ or CC quarterly JJ basis NN . SENT Industrial JJ production NN constitutes VVZ the DT more RBR cyclical JJ part NN of IN the DT aggregate JJ economy NN and CC the DT cyclical JJ profiles NNS of IN industrial JJ production NN and CC GDP NP have VHP been VBN found VVN to TO be VB closely RB related VVN , , so RB that IN cyclical JJ indicators NNS identified VVN against IN industrial JJ production NN serve VV well RB as IN indicators NNS for IN the DT GDP NP cycles NNS . SENT SIX CD MONTH NN RATE NN OF IN CHANGE NN The DT annualised JJ 6 CD month NN rate NN of IN change NN of IN CLIs NP is VBZ calculated VVN by IN dividing VVG the DT figure NN for IN a DT given VVN month NN m NN by IN the DT 12 CD month NN moving VVG average NN centred VVN on IN m NN 6 CD . SENT 5 CD . SENT It PP is VBZ easier JJR for IN users NNS to TO interpret VV the DT annualised JJ 6 CD month NN rate NN of IN change NN since IN the DT volatility NN in IN the DT CLI NP has VHZ been VBN smoothed VVN out RP . SENT At IN the DT same JJ time NN , , the DT annualised JJ 6 CD month NN rate NN of IN change NN provides VVZ earlier JJR signals NNS for IN the DT turning VVG points NNS . SENT Let VV R NN t NN and CC C NP t NN be VB respectively RB the DT 6 CD month NN rate NN of IN change NN and CC the DT CLI NP at IN t NN , , SMOOTHING VVG component NN series NNS are VBP smoothed VVN according VVG to TO their PP$ MCD JJ months NNS for IN cyclical JJ dominance NN values NNS to TO reduce VV irregularity NN . SENT TREND NN RESTORED VVD This DT form NN of IN the DT CLI NP is VBZ calculated VVN by IN multiplying VVG the DT amplitude NN adjusted VVN and CC ratio NN to TO trend VV CLI NP by IN the DT trend NN of IN the DT reference NN series NN to TO obtain VV the DT trend NN restored VVN CLI NP . SENT This DT trend NN restoration NN enables VVZ direct JJ comparison NN with IN the DT reference NN series NN . SENT TREND NN In IN time NN series NN analysis NN , , a DT given VVN time NN series NN can MD be VB decomposed VVN into IN . SENT A DT cyclical JJ component NN , , A DT trend NN component NN , , A DT seasonal JJ component NN , , An DT irregular JJ component NN , , The DT method NN of IN trend NN estimation NN adopted VVN by IN the DT OECD NP is VBZ a DT modified JJ version NN of IN the DT phase NN average JJ trend NN PAT NN method NN developed VVN by IN the DT United NP States NPS NBER NP . SENT TURNING VVG POINT NN In IN the DT growth NN cycles NNS analysis NN , , a DT turning VVG point NN occur VVP in IN a DT series NN when WRB the DT deviation NN from IN trend NN series NN reached VVD a DT local JJ maximum NN Peak NP or CC a DT local JJ minimum JJ Trough NN . SENT Growth NN cycle NN peaks NNS end NN of IN expansion NN occur VVP when WRB activity NN is VBZ furthest JJ above IN its PP$ trend NN level NN . SENT Growth NN cycle NN troughs NNS end NN of IN contraction NN recession NN occur VV when WRB activity NN is VBZ furthest JJ below IN its PP$ trend NN level NN . SENT TWELVE NN MONTH NN RATE NN OF IN CHANGE NN AT IN ANNUAL JJ RATE NN SMOOTHED VVN this DT rate NN is VBZ calculated VVN by IN dividing VVG the DT figure NN for IN a DT given VVN month NN m NN by IN the DT 12 CD month NN moving VVG average NN centred VVN on IN m NN 12 CD . SENT Let VV R NN t NN and CC C NP t NN be VB respectively RB the DT 12 CD month NN rate NN of IN change NN and CC the DT CLI NP at IN t NN is VBZ WEIGHTING NN Component NN series NN are VBP equally RB weighted VVN in IN the DT aggregation NN process NN into IN a DT country NN CLI NP . SENT On IN the DT other JJ hand NN , , GDP NP PPP NP weights NNS are VBP used VVN to TO estimate VV the DT CLIs NP for IN groups NNS of IN countries NNS , , i NP . SENT e SYM . SENT zone NN . SENT ZONE NN In IN addition NN to TO those DT for IN individual JJ countries NNS , , OECD NP calculates VVZ CLI NP for IN the DT following VVG groups NNS of IN countries NNS or CC zones NNS . SENT OECD NP total NN , , Major NP Seven CD countries NNS , , OECD NP Europe NP , , European NP Union NP , , Euro NP area NN , , Big NP four CD European JJ countries NNS and CC NAFTA NP North NP American NP Free NP Trade NP Agreement NP . SENT Korea NP , , New NP Zealand NP , , Czech NP Republic NP , , Hungary NP , , Island NP , , Poland NP , , and CC Slovak NP Republic NP are VBP excluded VVN from IN zone NN calculations NNS since IN no DT CLI NP is VBZ published VVN for IN these DT countries NNS . SENT The DT reference NN series NN for IN a DT zone NN is VBZ the DT weighted JJ average NN of IN the DT individual JJ countries NNS reference NN series NN , , where WRB the DT weights NNS are VBP derived VVN from IN GDP NP in IN industry NN and CC the DT GDP NP purchasing NN power NN parity NN . SENT Weights NNS are VBP updated VVN every DT five CD years NNS and CC current JJ weights NNS are VBP from IN the DT year NN 2000 CD . SENT The DT amplitude NN adjusted VVN CLI NP for IN the DT zone NN is VBZ calculated VVN by IN weighting NN together RB the DT amplitude NN adjusted VVN CLIs NP for IN individual JJ countries NNS , , using VVG the DT same JJ weights NNS as IN for IN the DT reference NN series NN . SENT The DT same JJ method NN is VBZ used VVN to TO obtain VV the DT industrial JJ production NN trend NN for IN the DT zone NN . SENT Then RB , , the DT trend NN restoration NN is VBZ done VVN as RB for IN individual JJ countries NNS , , by IN multiplying VVG the DT amplitude NN adjusted VVN composite JJ indicator NN by IN the DT trend NN of IN the DT reference NN series NN . SENT Don't NP miss VVP OECD NP Statistics NP Catalogue NN 2006 CD Frequently RB Requested VVN Statistics NP News NP Releases VVZ Statistics NP Working NP Papers NP OECD NP Glossary NN of IN Statistical NP Terms NNS Statistical NP Sources NNS Statistical NP Programme NN of IN Work NP 2005 CD Statistical NP Information NP System NP Quality NP Framework NN OECD NP Observer NP Databank NP Contact NP Us NP Editor's NP Choice NP Statistics NP , , Knowledge NN and CC Policy NN . SENT Key JJ Indicators NNS to TO Inform VV Decision NN Making VVG This DT publication NN contains VVZ the DT proceedings NNS of IN the DT World NP Forum NP on IN Key JJ Indicators NNS held VVN in IN Palermo NP in IN November NP 2004 CD . SENT OECD NP in IN Figures NNS OECD NP in IN Figures NNS 2005 CD Edition NN OECD NP in IN Figures NNS is VBZ an DT original JJ , , simple JJ to TO use VV , , pocket NN data NNS book NN , , compiled VVN and CC checked VVN by IN our PP$ experts NNS , , so RB that IN decision NN makers NNS in IN government NN , , research NN and CC business NN know VVP they PP can MD rely VV on IN it PP . SENT Newsletter NN The DT Statistics NP Newsletter NN for IN the DT extended JJ OECD NP Statistical NP Network NP . SENT Statistics NP Brief NP The NP Statistics NPS Brief NP presents VVZ important JJ statistical JJ issues NNS to TO the DT international JJ community NN of IN statisticians NNS , , economists NNS , , policy NN makers NNS and CC researchers NNS . SENT Contact VV Us PP Help VV FAQ NP Site NN Map VVP Fran NP ais NNS OECD NP . SENT All DT rights NNS reserved VVD . SENT Terms NNS Conditions NNS Privacy NN Policy NN Powered VVN by IN Vignette NN